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Czech yields went up as the central bank surprisingly didn’t cut interest rate yesterday

24.2.2006 9:47
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The whole yield curve added 10 bps, also money market rates rose by 10 bps. The impact of the central bank decision was limited, because a rate cut is still on cards. Moreover, the market works with only two little different scenarios. First, the bank will cut the rate and will raise it again in the second half of the year. Second, the bank will hold the rate stable for the first half and raise it in the second half of the year.

Comments of governor Tuma confirm that the bank asses anti-inflationary risks higher than pro-inflationary risks. A strong koruna is key factor, which pushes inflation lower. However, the situation is not as serious to warrant a rate cut. The central bank likely relies on the ECB, which is expected to hike rates next week. The CNB hopes that other widening of negative interest rate differential may weaken the koruna. However if this strategy proves to be wrong, rate cut expectation will come back. We expect the koruna shrugs off the ECB hike as in December. The central bank yesterday changed its communication strategy, as it revealed not only result of the meeting but also support for the decision (yesterday 5:1). Moreover a situation report was also available.

Today the market may digest yesterday’s decision and cure its wounds. As treasuries and Bunds were also under downward pressure, there is only little hope for recovery of bonds today.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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