Initially they tracked core markets lower. The yields added some 2 bps in the morning ahead the 4-year tender. However the auction changed the atmosphere, as the demand highly exceeded the offer. Investors wanted papers worth CZK 12.08 bn, while the offer was only usual CZK 6 bn. Moreover as in previous 14-year tender investors bidded quite aggressively. Therefore bonds almost pared all early losses in the afternoon. Recovery of U.S. Treasuries was helpful too.
Today the CNB Board meeting is a eyecatcher. We still bet on a rate cut, because the koruna is pretty much stronger than the banker asses as appropriate. Almost all Board members spoke against strong koruna, last was governor Tuma in today’s economic daily. The opinion of governor might be decisive, since arguments for and against the cut are rather balanced. If the bank cut, bonds might go up slightly and vise versa. Nevertheless, we do not expect huge price action as the market is get ready for the cut. Moreover since the opinions among investors are split even other decision may not harm the market a lot.
(CSOB - Investment research)