The yield curve fell around 4 bps. Development on euro market was helpful, too. Investors bought on comment of CNB Board member Jan Frait, who quoted that the bank might cut interest rates due to a strong koruna. He added that negative spread over euro rates didn’t matter. Frait is strong dove in the Board and is well known for such comments.
Therefore it isn’t a clue that the Board will change rates on the next policy meeting. More interesting would be to heard some hawk from the board. All in al, prospects for a cut doesn’t changed significantly. If the koruna approaches the EUR/CZK 28.00 level, a majority will be for a cut. Otherwise the Board will stay on hold.
Due to Frait’s comment the market shrugged off above forecast rise in PPI. In January higher energy costs caused prices in industry rose by 1 %, or 0,3 % y/y. The December industry output rose by 7.1 % over previous year, pretty in line with expectation.
Today retail sales might not affect the market. The December figure shows low rise in consumer demand, negatively affected by volatile car sales. Sales doesn’t put any risk for inflation. Therefore the market may digest yesterday’s Frait’s words. Investors may slightly scale back their yesterday optimism. Markets worldwide may wait for Fed chairman Bernanke’s testimony. Finally, we could hear another commentary from the CNB Board.
(CSOB - Investment research)