PKO BP: 4Q05 results preview
Bank PKO BP is due to report 4Q05 results on February 16. We expect the bank to report net earnings of PLN 449.1m for 4Q05, down 7.5% q/q but up 50.9% y/y (IFRS/PAS). This implies net earnings for the full-year 2005 of 1,817.4m, which is 2.5% above the consensus forecast (source: Multex). However, there is no up-to-date consensus estimate available yet for 4Q05 results specifically. PKO BP appears well placed to deliver a strong set of results for 4Q05, which should have a positive trading impact.
Net interest income is expected to increase slightly to PLN 922.8m in 4Q05, up by 1.1% q/q and 1.4% y/y. Despite falling interest rates in Poland, with 3m-average WIBOR down 85bp in 2H05, volumes are expected to have compensated for margin pressure. PKO BP is expected to have further benefited from robust loan growth - in the banking sector, mortgages were up 11.1% q/q in 4Q05. However, note that consumer lending, rising 3.2% q/q in 4Q05, was somewhat slower than expected.
Net commission income is expected to come in at PLN 302.4m, growing 2.4% q/q but down 32.5% y/y, which reflects the first-time application in 2005 of the effective interest rate method for lending fees. According to an Analizy Online report on the Polish investment funds market, PKO/CS TFI (mutual fund subsidiary currently 50% co-owned with Credit Suisse) increased its market share from 7.26% in 3Q05 to 8.5% (AUM of PLN 5.21bn, up 34.6% q/q) at the end of 2005. Note that some 66% of full-year net inflows to PKO/CS TFI came in December, on the back of more active selling of deposit-linked AM products in bank's branch network. With a strong performance in asset management and encouraging lending volumes, the outlook is for a pick-up in fee income in 4Q05 after a 0.6% q/q decline in 3Q05.
Total costs are expected to increase in 4Q05 to PLN 1,121.1m, up 0.8% q/q, and 3.1% y/y. While personnel costs are expected to get a seasonal boost due to employee bonuses, other expenses should offset this growth. Moreover, whilst there is no aggressive plan to cut costs at the bank, there is a plan to benefit from attrition, and so staff declined by a FTE of 705 (2%) in 1H05 and by a further 600 (1.7%) in 3Q05.
Net provisioning requirements are forecasted to be PLN 67.8m in 4Q05, up 27.6% q/q and 46.1% y/y. Its unclear whether the sale of a bad debt portfolio at PKO BP will impact the 4Q05 results. Whilst we have assumed no provisioning impact in our forecast, there is some potential for a one-off release, that could benefit the bottom-line.