Standard and Poor's Rating Service downgraded its outlook for Hungary from stable to negative yesterday on “mounting fiscal challenges”. At the same time S&P reaffirmed its "A minus" long-term and "A-2" short-term sovereign credit ratings for the country. The downgrade of the outlook does not come as a real surprise, as earlier this year Fitch ratings agency downgraded Hungary’s sovereign credit ratings as well. Analysts were awaiting similar steps from other agencies as both the government’s agenda and Hungary’s convergence programs lack the necessary reforms to make a shift to decrease expenditure-to-cost ratios. Hungary has received a postponement from the EU, and the country has to submit a revised convergence program by September 2006 (only after the elections). Moreover, the markets are also waiting for signs that after the elections (April) the new government will implement fiscal reforms. S&P stated that their outlook downgrade reflects the lack of coherent strategies presented by the two main political parties ahead of the elections. This news weakened the Hungarian forint yesterday and was the major contributor to the BUX index being dragged down. After the downgrade, we do not believe a rating cut from S&P in Hungary’s long-term and short-term sovereign rating will be likely until after the elections. More visibility in the programs of the political parties could give the markets direction.