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PKN Orlen: puts its final offer for Mazeikiu today

27.1.2006 9:22
Autor: KBC/Patria

PKN Orlen will submit today its final offer for the purchase of 54% stake in Lithuanian refinery Mazeikiu Nafta from Yukos. The company held a strategy update during the meeting with analysts yesterday, but gave no indication on the price tag. PKN Orlen has been rumoured to be offering USD 1.5bn for the stake, which values the entire company at USD 2.8bn. The tender results are expected within one month’s time, which would be followed by the proceedings to get an approval from EU antimonopoly office. PKN Orlen CEO said that the company would finance Mazeikiu acquisition from existing EUR 1bn loan facility, aided by bridge financing. In our view, based on industry EV/EBITDA comparison, Mazeiku's value is close to USD 3.0 bn. Additionally, we believe that the Mazeikiu acquisition warrants a premium taking into consideration substantial additional synergies, namely:

i) the Mazeiku acquisition would open exporting routes to Western European markets for PKN Orlen;
ii) it would decrease competitive pressure in north-eastern part of Poland; and
iii) it would improve PKN Orlen's bargaining position versus Russian oil suppliers, as it would gain indirect control over 34% of Russia’s total oil exports, in the part flowing through Lithuania, Poland and Czech Republic.

Separately, PKN Orlen CEO gave a fairly positive, although not precise, outlook for 4Q05 results, pointing to significant improvement in petrochemical cracks on ethylene and polyethylene, products of PKN - Basell j.v. new installations, which has been put on stream only in mid last year and reached 70-80% capacity utilization already. We reiterate our Buy rating on the stock with fair value estimate of PLN 69.


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