Industrial product grew 3.7% in September 2000, broadly in line with the Patria forecast of 2.1% growth and just below the market consensus of 6.3% growth. Compared with 11% growth in August, the September number looks disappointing, but September 2000 had two fewer working days than September 1999, so the adjusted growth rate remains robust at 8.1%.
As usually, industrial growth was driven by automotive production that grew 29%. Textiles and primary industrial branches as mining and lumbering also recorded above-the-average growth. On the contrary, food-processing output collapsed by 11% and chemicals even by 17%.
Wages grew by reasonable 5.1%, which means stagnation in real terms. Productivity grew by almost 5% in real terms, thus opening further a room for corporate profits.
September results did not bring any significant changes and we maintain our forecast that the industrial production will grow 5% this year.