September current account beat even our optimistic forecasts, showing the deficit of mere USD 360m, while we expected USD 400-460m and the market was looking for USD 600m. The improvement is clearly visible in comparison with the last year, as the nine-month deficit stood at USD7.86bn last year while it has been only USD5.38bn this year. In relation to GDP the deficit dropped to 4.4%. Nevertheless, the data do not look that bright when looking at the structure. The trade deficit came out worse than we expected at USD 946m, and the overall balance was improved by higher current transfers and unregistered flows. Imports and especially exports plunged, exports were down in m/m terms and - for the first time in many months - also in y/y terms. Sluggish exports seem to stem from weak foreign demand, however, the deteriorating foreign trade turnover is also another proof of weak Polish domestic demand. Therefore we do not see any significant impact of the data on the Polish zloty, as the current attractivity of the zloty can be largely explained by rate cut expectations. The current account does not represent serious problem for Poland this year.
(Jabuk Dvorak, ČSOB)