Cesky Telecom will release its Q1 2001 consolidated IAS on Monday at noon. We forecast the top-line growth to slow down further, and EBITDA margins to weaken (from 50.2% in Q1 2000 to 48.5% in Q1 2001). This results in projected EBITDA growth of just 3.5%. Higher depreciation should keep EBIT growth negative, though lower expected financial and other costs should work the opposite way, resulting in an overall net income growth of 10%. Our forecasts are marginally above the (Reuters’) market consensus.
Q1 2001 is the first quarter after the end of Cesky Telecom’s monopoly over public fixed-line telephony. We expect that the impact of liberalization on CT’s performance will be small in Q1, but should grow further into the year.
(Ondřej Daťka)