Despite a strong start of the session the Polish zloty eventually ended the day on down by approximately 3% against core currencies on Wednesday, taking the toll of the broader than expected current account deficit and the weak US CPI reading. After soaring south past the 3.90 mark the EUR/PLN managed to build on these gains in early trade yesterday before buyers ran out of steam in the 3.87 area later in the morning.
As time passed the pressure slowly mounted on the zloty – first from the weaker than expected C/A figures. The current account deficit came in at EUR 459 m., slightly more than the 303 m expectations, while the trade imbalance grew to EUR -257 m. A closer look at the data shows, that despite the strong growth in imports exports did even better in March. For the first time this year the exports growth rate (23% y/y) exceeded the growth in imports (21.6%), which is good news as far as 1Q GDP growth is concerned, both in terms of sheer size and structure. With market focused on the US data later that day the softer than expected wage figures had little impact on bonds and were hence also neutral for the zloty.
The climax of yesterday’s action came a while later with the US CPI report. The weaker numbers sent emerging markets down and the zloty found itself among the biggest loosers with both bonds and the stock market hit by the sell-off. Just before the closing it looked as if the unit had managed to regain footing in the 3.91 EUR/PLN range but the correction resumed later that evening pushing the EUR/PLN up to 3.97. Unless global factors come into the picture once again we would expect the EUR/PLN pair to consolidate in the 3.95 range today. The zloty sharply lower on weak C/A figure and US CPI.
(CSOB - Investment research)