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The Polish zloty was mostly unchanged vis-a-vis the euro today

2.6.2006 9:56

The Polish zloty was mostly unchanged vis-a-vis the euro today as the unit tested bids around the PLN 3.93 figure and was capped around the PLN 3.94 level, an extremely tight range reflecting the calmer regional sentiment and weak liquidity on Thursday. At the same time the unit shed approximately 0.3% to the dollar as the greenback rallied against the single currency supported by the hawkish FED minutes the night before. Just before the closing luck changed hands with the weaker than expected ISM number in the US. The USD/PLN pair retreated to pre-opening levels and strong new bids were once again seen in the 3.93 EUR/PLN area.

The ISM release coincided with comments by NBP vice chairman Jerzy Pruski who made some headlines saying that the current economic environment is optimal for entering the ERM-2 and that Poland could meet the deficit criterion in 2-3 years time. Deputy finance minister Stanislaw Pietras admitted a while later that budget deficit to GDP ratio might in fact be below 3.0% next year (by Polish standards), but added that meeting the deficit goal quickly could harm economic growth as well.

Today all eyes will still be on the euro dollar and hence on the US payrolls as the domestic calendar is empty. Our baseline scenario for toady is that the zloty will stay strong in early trade, possibly testing the 3.91 EUR/PLN level, although we could also see some gentle technical pre-weekend selling and hence rates closer to 3.93 EUR/PLN later in the session.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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