The Polish zloty more than made up for its overnight losses against the euro on Tuesday. The EUR/PLN inched up by nearly 0.5% in early trade compared with the closing on Monday and quietly settled back in the 3.95-3.96 area.
Global factors should remain the key driving force for the zloty today hence the Turkish central bank’s extra meeting and expected rate hike which has comforted the lira and (to a lesser extent) other emerging market currencies, might get some attention in the run up to the all-important ECB meeting on Thursday. Anything less than a 50 bp rise in Turkey would probably be negative for the lira and could spur some short-term weakness in the zloty. Other than that with the domestic calendar empty we should see a rather calm session with the EUR/PLN trading sideways in the 3.93-3.98 range.
(CSOB - Investment research)