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CTEL: conference call revealed no new information

CTEL: conference call revealed no new information

8.6.2006 9:04
Autor: KBC/Patria

CTEL held a conference call yesterday to run through the presentation they made during the Telefonica Investor Day. As expected, not a lot of new information.Management reiterated their guidance for 2005-2009 revenue CAGR guidance of 0%-2%, in line with our forecast of 1% for the period. Management says they expect to come-in at the upper-end of the range. The 2005-2009 operating income CAGR guidance of 14%-18% suggests modest upside to our 15.0% forecast for the period. Whilst FM integration may lead to further upside in operating income from greater cost reductions, we would prefer to wait for confirmation in the upcoming quarters, and are leaving our forecasts unchanged given that they are broadly within guidance

Management said that internal control and operations expected to be merged by July 1. They originally expected a greater portion of the synergies to come from cost savings (opex), but now says some 65% of the EUR 115-138m OpCF synergies could come from revenue synergies. Additionally, CTEL does not anticipate tighter regulations on convergent offerings (post merger) from current regulation status quo.

Management was unwilling to provide a firm commitment regarding dividends going forward. Note that we are forecasting 10.8% cash yield for 2006, and a net gearing of 5.4%, and hence CTEL has the financial ability. But management said they would want to wait until they fully stabilise the operations first. We do not expect material comment from management regarding the dividend issue until the end of 2006, at which time, they should have better visibility on regulatory and competitive developments post-FM merger. Note that CZK 45 DPS (9.7% div yield at current valuation) will be paid in September.

We maintain our Buy recommendation, and CZK 510 fair value estimate.

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