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Czech bonds were only little changed as the June inflation matched the market expectation yesterday

Czech bonds were only little changed as the June inflation matched the market expectation yesterday

13.7.2006 11:06
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Czech bonds were only little changed as the June inflation matched the market expectations and fell below the central bank target. Consumer prices in June increased by 0.3 % m/m, and by 2.8 % in y/y terms. The rise of consumer prices in June was mainly driven by more expensive foodstuffs. In addition, secondary impacts of high energy prices this year have also caused price pressures, previously held back, to break out. This primarily regards bakery products.

The inflation was also affected by the traditional “potato” effect produced by the switch from ware potatoes to early potatoes. In contrast, prices of clothing and footwear went down as expected. In the next few months, we expect that inflation will stay below the target level of the CNB. Large uncertainty prevails on the prices of energy and fuels but these are prices the central bank has no influence on. So the inflation does not prompt the CNB to take any urgent action at the moment. While the experience of October last year shows that one cannot exclude the possibility that the central bank will accelerate increasing the rates (the Bank Board will have a new inflation report in two weeks), we assume that it is in no hurry to do so.

Today, the bond market might monitor the releases of the May industrial output and C/A figures, but we do not expect a strong reaction unless the koruna would move sharply after these data. We expect Czech markets largely to track the moves on core bond markets.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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