Social Democrats said that they will not support the centre-right coalition and should be given the post of the Lower House Speaker. The speaker would than nominate (in the 3rd attempt) a person as a PM to form a Government, who will be able to prove a 101 support. Social Democrats believe they can achieve it despite having together with the Communist 100 seats only. The centre-right coalition found the proposal ‘interesting’ and is willing to hold talks on it while abolish its plan to nominate their candidate for the Friday’s Lower House Speaker election.
Our view: We believe that the CSSD’s plan will be accepted and its candidate will be elected as the Lower House’s speaker. This would allow the President to ask ODS’s leader, Mire Topolanek for form a Government (2 attempts). We see little chance that the centre-right coalition led by ODS will get the need vote of confidence hence the Speaker would nominate the leader who would be able to present 101+ votes support for its Government. This opens a possibility for a minority Government (ODS) supported by CSSD or a grand-coalition, which seems more likely than CSSD + the Communists or the Centre-right succeeding in luring over one MP from the other block. The politics-most sensitive stock, CEZ, would in turn benefit from such an outcome as the threat of preservation of the mining limits and no more nuclear blocks would be removed.