The Polish zloty posted gentle gains against the euro and held flat against the US dollar in thin pre-MPC trade on Friday. The trading pattern was similar to that of other regional currencies, but slightly less volatile compared for example to the Hungarian forint, which ended the first post-NBH session in the green for the second day in a row yesterday. On the domestic data front the retail sales report came in at 10.7% y/y broadly in-line with the market consensus and had no discernable impact on the zloty. Even though the result slightly softer than our 12.5% y/y estimate, annual growth remained in the two digit area and given the purely statistical number of days effect the data underpins our scenario of robust domestic demand and 5.0-5.2% y/y GDP growth in 2Q.
The CSO has scheduled the GDP release for August 30th, hence the data will be available ahead of next month’s rate decision. In the course of the session the zloty came close to breaking past the psychological 3.90 EUR/PLN barrier several times but with the US confidence and housing data stronger than expected it was eventually unable to muster enough strength to do so.
The MPC communiqué and inflation report will be the key points of interest for traders on the domestic front today (more on this in the fixed income part). If the tone of the statement turns out to be hawkish (particularly regarding the inflation forecast) rather than balanced this could lead to some bond selling but which might limit the zloty’s upside potential.
(CSOB - Investment research)