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Interfax: Poland's MPC meets expectations by keeping rates on hold, as upside is seen to still-low inflation

Interfax: Poland's MPC meets expectations by keeping rates on hold, as upside is seen to still-low inflation

26.7.2006 16:18
Autor: ČTK

WARSAW. JULY 27. INTERFAX CENTRAL EUROPE - Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) Wednesday held rates flat with the key policy rate at 4.00%, the central bank said in a communiqué. The decision was widely expected, as inflation, while still low, is seen heading upwards and reaching the target of 2.5% within the horizon of monetary policy.

"The decision is in line with market expectations," Deutsche Bank chief economist in Warsaw, Arkadiusz Krzesniak, said. "Taking into account the current state of the economy, it was hard to expect any other decision."

Poland's inflation declined to an annual rate of 0.8% in June, as analysts expected flat inflation of 0.9%. But the central bank sees consumer price index (CPI) rising to the target of 2.5% at the beginning of 2008 and Governor Leszek Balcerowicz said the council would act to prevent it rising above the target.

The market will now eagerly await the council's communiqué, due out at 16:00 CET, when the council holds a press conference.

The rate setters will then publish their assessment of the new projection of inflation, which will be published in its entirety on Thursday morning, while the highlights will be revealed at the council's conference.

"In anticipation of the council's statement, it would be prudent to expect an indication that inflation might return to the target earlier than previously expected, but this should not be interpreted as the announcement of imminent rate hikes," ING Bank analyst Bartosz Pawlowski wrote in his comments. "Yet, given a weakening on the core markets, Polish yields could go a few basis points up. As usual, there should be no impact on the zloty."

Krzesniak sees the communiqué as likely to be neutral in tone, though pointing to mid-term upside risks to inflation.

Poland's key intervention rate was left intact at 4.00%, with the Lombard rate at 5.50%, the deposit rate at 2.50% and the rediscount rate at 4.25%.

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