PGNiG may have headache over finding a new supplier of 2 billion cubic meter of gas for the next two to three years according to Rzeczpospolita. The Polish gas monopoly’s current contract with RosUkrEnergo will expire by end 2006. PGNiG might choose to extend its agreement with RosUkrEnergo or turn to Gazprom. Although it is more likely that in case of making an agreement with Gazprom, PGNiG should consent to the the terms set by the Russian company. Gazprom might require PGNiG to increase its share in EuRoPol Gaz together with Gazprom, by buying out the third shareholder, Gas Trading. This way Gazprom could have higher influence in the transmission network firm, which would enable the Russian company to implement its strategy and gain access to other European markets.
Our view: No doubt, Gazprom claims require a political decision. We see the news as a new threat for PGNiG. If government is reluctant to change the ownership and the statue of EuRoPol Gaz, the potentially rising natural gas import prices could cause losses for the company as it might not be allowed to immediately transfer the price increase to the consumers fully.