Yesterday’s meeting of leaders of the 5 parties (ODS, CSSD, Christian Democrats, the Greens and the Communists) may lead to election of the Speaker of the Lower House nominated by the CSSD. The President would then ask the leader of ODS to form a Government, who then has 30 days to ask the lower house for confidence. There are three attempts to form the Government. The Speaker nominates the person to form a Government in the 3rd round. Social Democrats continue to rule out support for the centre-right coalition while supporting a technocratic Government with experts from CSSD and ODS. ODS would agree with a minority technocratic Government of ODS and independent experts but without ‘experts’ nominated by CSSD. At the same time, ODS is asking the CSSD’s candidate for the speaker’s position to have a limited mandated in order to avoid the speaker to ask CSSD’s leader to form a Government, should the previous two attempts fail. Note that the President may allow CSSD’s leader to form a Government.
Our view: Even thought there has been some progress in the negotiations the deadlock continues. Again, likely outcomes are (i) agreement between ODS and CSSD or (ii) early elections.