The current PM Jiri Paroubek and the CSSD’s leader, should step down today giving way to the president to name Mirek Topolanek, ODS leader as the new PM. Topolanek will have 30 days for form a Government and to ask the Lower House for a confidence. Topolanek will try to firm a minority Government with the support of its former coalition partners, Christian Democrats and the Greens, however, he would in any case need the support of CSSD, which is now getting complicated in some areas including program, nomination of independent ministers and the time-mandate of the Government. Note that CSSD wants the minority ODS Government only until the end of the year or for two years only followed by early elections, which is not acceptable for ODS, which is asking for support for the full 4 years or preparations for early elections in April/May.
Our view: Despite the constitution deadlock being cleared by electing the Speaker of the House Lower, the situation is not necessarily getting clearer as ODS and CSSD are finding difficulties to agree on several issues. We also remind that the President may ask CSSD’s leader Jiri Paroubek to form a new Government should Topolanek (ODS) be unsuccessful, which may be CSSD’s ultimate goal. Also early elections are still in the game.