The 3.90 EUR/PLN level remains the crucial
landmark for the Polish zloty as liquidity
slowly returns to the market after the sleepy
holiday season. The pair failed to really build
on the late Tuesday/early Wednesday forint
rebound and after a slightly stronger opening
it remained locked in the 3.89-3.91 range
throughout the entire session.
On the political front, the (potential) return of Zyta
Gilowska to the government was further
delayed after a vetting court postponed its
proceedings (and hence the ruling on
whether the ex-FinMin cooperated with the
communist-era secret service or not) until
August 31st. In our base scenario we see
Gilowska back at the FinMin post once she
is acquitted, but since she is also one of the
key candidates for the vacating NBP
president post, we believe the comeback is
most likely to be short-lived.
With the HUF contagion put behind the zloty
should stick to the current consolidation
trend for the remainder of the week ahead of
the Friday’s NBS meeting and next week’s
rate decisions in Hungary and Poland.
(CSOB - Investment research)