The Polish zloty traded in an extremely tight range between 3.93 and 3.94 EUR/PLN on Thursday, after the GDP data and MPC decision on rates failed to help the unit break out of the long established sidewise trend. The EUR/PLN pair failed to rally on the upbeat US PCE inflation data and even on the “extreme vigilance” wording reintroduced by Jean-Claude Trichet into the ECB policy statement. Instead the zloty fell back closer to 3.95 EUR/PLN just before the end of trade on top of the global position adjustment ahead of the US payroll data today. Core m arkets should stay in the spotlight for the zloty though and the payroll report stand firm on top of the agenda today. However only a significantly weaker reading than the expected 125K could change the euro-dollar equilibrium and hence have a more profound impact on emerging market currencies.
(CSOB - Investment research)