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The Hungarian forint shrugged off statistics on an higher-than-expected trade deficit as well as on revised GDP growth

The Hungarian forint shrugged off statistics on an higher-than-expected trade deficit as well as on revised GDP growth

11.09.2006 12:09
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The Hungarian forint shrugged off statistics on an higher-than-expected trade deficit as well as on revised GDP growth. Calm trading was not interrupted either by the NBH Minutes, which failed to deliver surprises and showed that while the MPC voted unanimously for a 50 basis points hike, some members were of the view that it was not useful to undertake a commitment to a tightening cycle in the future.

On Friday, the local press reported that according to the 2006 “Economic Freedom of the World” report by Canada’s Fraser Institute, Hungary has the freest economy of Central Europe. This reputable study, which is based on the size of a government, legal Currencies Close change structure and security of property rights, access to sound money, freedom to trade internationally, and regulations concerning credit, labor, and businesses, indicates that Hungary is a good place for long-term investment. But given persisting problems with the budget deficit we are skeptic that this positive news can help the forint to break through resistance level at 275 EUR/HUF.

Today the market will be again without major impetuses from the domestic front. Crucial statistics this week will be inflation, to be published tomorrow. So, we expect investors to maintain a wait-and-see strategy today and the forint will hover around current levels 275-277 EUR/HUF.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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