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As we expected riots in Budapest led to sharp forint’s weakening

As we expected riots in Budapest led to sharp forint’s weakening

20.09.2006 10:25

As we expected riots in Budapest led to sharp forint’s weakening. Nevertheless, the EUR/HUF 275.0 resistance worked quite well, so the pair has not managed to brake above this level so far.

This night was calmer in Budapest, may be because of strong calls from the president and prime minister, who said that the events that took place at the building of the Hungarian Television headquarters in the early hours on Tuesday constitute criminal action. Meanwhile, PM Gyrcsány, who is still considered as a guarantee for fiscal consolidation, said that he would not resign. In this respect its worth adding that S&P rating agency has already warned that antigovernment protest could weaken government plans to pursue (fiscal) reforms, which could possibly lead to a downgrade of country’s credit rating. On the other hand, the agency said that the protest would not have an impact „per se“ on the rating.

Though it seems that the situation has calmed down a bit, in our view it is too early to bet on forint’s recovery. A big student demonstration is scheduled for Thursday against the government's plans to introduce tuition fees in higher education from 2008 and this can bring new violence and political uncertainty to Budapest. The forint faced strong sell-off following Tuesday early-morning riots (EUR/HUF intra-day).

(CSOB - Investment research)

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