We expect that despite the smaller number of working days, retail sales recorded a decent increase of 12.6% y/y in September, slightly above the 11.5% a month earlier and versus market consensus of 12.2%. We estimate September unemployment rate to come in at 15.3%. We also expect that the annual ex-food and fuel CPI growth increased slightly to 1.4% - 1.5% y/y in September from 1.3% y/y in August.
Our view: The retail sales figure should not be much of a market mover though as the two-day MPC meeting which starts today comes into focus - even more so since our estimate is not far off the market consensus. The continued strong rise in consumer loans and the healthy increase in both, wages and employment, as well as the relatively strong new car sales last month all underpin our view. The unemployment data should be even less of a surprise after the labour ministry announced its preliminary estimate of 15.3% earlier this month. The same goes for the core inflation report which is usually easy to estimate once the detailed CPI report is available. The market sees net inflation at 1.4%, but with the final result subject to rounding errors this month the data may easily come in a tad higher, which could push yields slightly higher later in the session.