Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority (PSZAF) could approve Permira's public bid next week according to Magyar Hírlap. The public bid approval process has been suspended almost three weeks ago, when the regulator asked for additional time to overview Permira's option contracts securing majority in BorsodChem.
Our view: We would see the regulator’s approval next week in-line with our thoughts that the suspension of the approval could take for a couple of weeks, although we could see some slight positive reaction in the share price as such a decision would exclude further delay or rejection risk.
Permira plans to offer HUF 3,000 per share to minority investors accepting the public bid, which is well above the regulatory minimum price of HUF 2,633 of 180-days weighted average price preceding the announcement of the bid. We estimate investors accepting the bid could get their payments within 40-47 days, or roughly by mid- December if the bid approval comes next week.
The expected timeline of receiving payment from public bid is the following:
1) Public bid approval is rumored for next week (minimum 2, maximum 7 days, is press speculation turn out to be correct)
2) When the public bid documentation is approved, the buyout process may start the earliest 2 days and the latest 5 days later
3) Buy-out process lasts until the Friday of the 5th week (roughly 30 days)
4) Finally there are 5 days for settlement (payment)