Early elections seem to be the most likely outcome of the current political deadlock. Following the Senate elections, where ODS gained the absolute majority and comments from the President’s spokesman, that ODS will again be asked to form a Government, all parties except from the Social Democrats (CSSD). The early elections could take place in September 2007 as required by the Communists and not as early as in April/May 2007.
Our view:
ODS’s discussions with al political parties suggest that all except from the CSSD would support early elections. CSSD proposes a grand coalition with ODS, which, however, ODS rejects. The direct of the politics on CEZ is rather limited at this point. The sale of the state's c7% stake in CEZ is in the budget proposal and could be reduced only if there are other privatizations making up for the proceeds (CZK31bn). It is likely that the budget will be passed. Therefore, in the near-term, CEZ shouldn’t be significantly influenced by the politics as the up to 7% sale of the state's stake could be acquired by CEZ itself.