According to our estimates, foreign trade in September returned to a surplus of CZK 7bn after the August deficit of CZK 2.1bn. After the end of the summer holiday period, production capacities are back to their usual output levels, which stood out significantly in both the production and exports statistics. The export volume for September looks as though it will be CZK 20bn higher than in August. In addition, the negative influence of the adverse pricing trends in foreign trade should diminish, which were seen in the influence of the high prices of oil and natural gas during last couple of months.
Exports were helped by a significant increase in export capacities during the previous year. These were supported both by direct foreign investment inflows and this year’s relatively favorable developments in the Eurozone's economy. On the other hand, imports continue to weigh in on the acceleration in domestic demand (consumption). For the full year of 2006, we expect to see a balance of trade surplus of CZK 45bn.