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Czech bond yields headed north on Friday

6.11.2006 9:57
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Czech bond yields headed north on Friday as the market digested further Thursday’s information about higher bond supply in the last quarter and the market partly followed the negative development in core bond markets Contrary, the market virtually ignored the release of CNB’s Minutes and details of a new inflation report, though they were quite interesting. As we comment Friday’s price action, it is worth adding that the front end of the curve closed slightly higher despite firmer Czech koruna, which is quite unusual.

As concern the CNB Minutes, they showed that the Bank Board is highly uncertain about the medium-term inflation development as the new inflation projection indicates that the monetary-relevant inflation (adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes) should reach almost 4.0%. If it happened, it would obviously imply tough monetary tightening, but the Board is not sure about this projection, partly because these catastrophic scenarios were predicted several times in the past, but they did not materialize. So, the bank still sees just a gradual rise in interest rates.

Today, initially the Czech bond market will be trading on Friday’s sell off in core bond markets, which might push yields further up – especially at the long end of the curve. Later on as we expect that the German Bond market should slip into sideways mode, the Czech bond prices should consolidate their fall too.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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