The Polish zloty tracked the forint and both
korunas higher as all its regional peers
extended Friday’s gains in early trading on
Monday. The EUR/PLN pair edged into and
then stabilized in the 3.82 area before zloty
bulls decided it was time to take a breather
after two days of hefty gains, which saw the
unit edge up by roughly 1 percent against
the euro. The market was unmoved by the
updated EC macro forecasts for Poland
(more in the FI part) and closed the day
trading sideways. Just after the end of the
session, the MoF released the data on the
net inflow of EU funds in September.
Naturally Poland remained a net beneficiary,
but the size of the overhang was quite
surprising – over EUR 1 bn. of EU funds
were transferred compared with a
contribution of just over EUR 200 m. This in
turn suggests that the September C/A deficit
was closer to 200 m, rather than the 500 m
that we estimated to date.
With new technical support levels in place
(3.82 for the EUR/PLN pair) the zloty should
keep to the newly established range ahead
of next week’s busy domestic agenda.
Meanwhile the calendar is still empty so
the PLN should stay strong but may look
for signs of weakness from currencies in
the region, which could become the
catalyst for some short-term profit taking.
(CSOB - Investment research)