Standard & Poor's Ratings Agency has raised its short-term rating on Erste Bank to 'A-1' from 'A-2'. The agency stated that the upgrade reflects mostly lower anticipated risk concerning the acquisition of Banca Comerciala Romana (rated BBB-/Stable) and improvements in the industry and economic risk concerning Erste Bank operations in Central and Eastern Europe. Despite that BCR represents a large acquisition for Erste Bank, the agency positively asses investor’s ability to address integration risk based on the bank’s strong track record of integrating other institutions in CEE. Moreover, S&P agency reported, though the business plan for BCR remains ambitious, BCR should achieve good levels of growth. The integration of Romania into the EU on January 1, 2007, should also have a beneficial stabilizing effect on BCR's operating environment. The agency sees Erste Bank as well positioned to benefit from the higher-than-average growth opportunities in CEE, but at the same time as exposed to the higher-than-average economic and industry risk of maturing economies.
Our view: We also acknowledge the high growth of the Romanian market and restructuring potential of BCR, but in our opinion the management guidance for a 40% CAGR of net earnings in 2006-2009 seems very ambitious, considering that competition is also intensifying, with many banks aggressively expanding their branch networks. We forecast a 35.2% CAGR of net earnings for BCR. We do not expect the news to have a significant trading impact. We reiterate our Hold rating with a fair value of € 52.53 per share.