Despite a lack of important domestic as well
as external events, the Hungarian forint
firmed and reached new 8-month high at
EUR/HUF 255.55. Nevertheless, the
currency retreated during the rest of the
session and gave back some of its previous
gains.
Today, the economic calendar is again
blank and thus the most important for the
forint will be the regional sentiment.
Although we do not exclude that in case that
the positive sentiment persists the forint
might slightly extend its gains, we still
believe that the risk of a correction towards
weaker levels is becoming significant. One
of the risks is a downgrade of Hungary’s
sovereign rating by Moody’s. It is also
necessary to remind that the forint remains
the most vulnerable currency in the region
due to unfavourable macroeconomic
fundamental. Hence, a possible change in
investors’ risk appetite would hurt the
Hungarian currency significantly.
(CSOB - Investment research)