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The Polish zloty started Wednesday’s session with an edge against the euro

The Polish zloty started Wednesday’s session with an edge against the euro

30.11.2006 9:54

The Polish zloty started Wednesday’s session with an edge against the euro, but quickly settled into a tight range in the EUR/PLN 3.82 before the unit had the chance to extend the rally. With the MPC rate decision and statement no market movers other issues got to the headlines, among them the NBP presidential race. Urszula Grzelońska was quoted in one of the daily papers as saying that she may drop out of the race if she is forced to bring certain people on board with her as part of the deal.

Grzelońska denied any further comments on whose nomination she might oppose, which if anything, is yet another signal that communication with markets is not her strongest point and an evident sign that the ruling conservatives have yet to make the final call on the potential list of candidates for the post. Meanwhile the PM Jarosław Kaczynski reiterated his personal skepticism on a hasty euro-zone entry and denounced speculations that Grzelońska’s chances of taking over from Leszek Balcerowicz were given a blow after she had made a similar remark earlier this month.

We must acknowledge that even though Grzelońska remains the top contender for the presidency the other potential candidates seem to have closed the distance somewhat in recent days. As such the race remains wide open with the final decision from the president expected before Christmas. The zloty ignored the pre-announced information on Poland’s updated convergence program, which sees the general government deficit drop to below 3.0% of GDP in 2009 (see more in yesterday’s daily). The only interesting fresh piece of information here were the GDP growth estimates. While the 5.1% y/y forecast for both 2007 and 2008 does not differ significantly from our expectations, 5.6% y/y expected by the FinMin in 2009 is a bit on the high side and most likely highly dependant on effective absorption of EU funding.

Today, the Q3 GDP numbers will be the highlight of the session and even though our growth and composition estimate is basically identical to the market consensus, recent data on investment outlays suggest that we may be up for a (positive) surprise. If growth does come in above 5.5% y/y the zloty may see a move closer to 3.80. Otherwise all should once again come down to the regional sentiment for the PLN today.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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