In line with expectations Senate approved the cigarette excise tax hike. Note that previously Parliament passed milder version of excise tax hike. This version counts with EUR 60 per 1,000 cigarettes excise tax applied as of 1 March 2007, while stricter version of former CSSD led government was EUR 62 per 1,000 cigarettes. In addition, hoarding activities has been limited for period of only appox. 1 and 1/2 month.
Our view:
Increase of the excise tax is only 25% and not 29%, which creates fewer incentives for possible expansion of black market. However 25% increase is still a significant figure, which we think will in the end lead to the contraction of the official market by 3%. This tax hike implicate that there will be another hike in January 2008 to finally reach required EU minimal level of taxation EUR 64 per 1,000 cigarettes. Limitation of hoarding activities is definitely positive for PMCR as it may not be loosing its market share as it was until now, when PMCR was not able to create sufficient inventories to match its competition. Bill still needs to be signed by the President but we don’t see any obstacles.