According to CTK, Czech government agreed to ask European Commission (EC) to increase its annual CO2 allowances for the 2008-2012 period to 101.9m tons from 97.6m tons, what is 4.4% increase.
Our view:
Given the steep fall in the price of CO2 credits to current EUR 7.2/t from the high of EUR 31.6/t following the excess of granted CO2 credits in 2005 making coal-based electricity production relatively cheaper, we believe that the EC will reject the proposal and will try to create a shortage in the CO2 credits in the second phase. The probability of rejection Czech allocation plan is significant as EC has already expressed its negative stance to 10 other national allocation plans. This is reflected also in the price of CO2 credits for the second phase which are currently traded at around EUR 19/t. We believe this news should not have any trading impact on today’s CEZ price as the proposal for allocation plan is in-line with previous statements.