Spokesman of Mero, the operator of crude oil pipelines in the Czech Republic stated yesterday that the country is not solely dependent on the Druzba pipeline but also has the opportunity to purchase crude via the IKL (Ingolstadt-Kralupy-Litvinov) pipeline. The IKL pipeline, which has a throughput capacity of 10 mtpa transported 2.7 million tonnes of oil from the Mediterranean area via Germany last year versus the purchase of 5.2m tones of Urals delivered via the Druzba pipeline. Moreover, the Czech Republic has 102 days of strategic crude and fuel reserves.
Our view:
Among CEE oils Unipetrol is the lest-affected by the crude supply interruption via the Druzba pipeline. Although some 65% of Unipetrol crude needs last year arrived via the Druzba pipeline, it could be an easy decision to switch entirely to the IKL pipeline. Please also note that only 30% of Unipetrol earnings are originated in the refining business versus 85% at Lotos, 70% at PKN and 50% at MOL. Assuming that Unipetrol should pay some US$ 1.0/bbl more for the Urals type of crude when purchasing via the IKL pipeline, the potential negative impact is less some US$ 19m per annum, according to our calculation. This would justify no more than 1% decline in the share price.