Reuters published the consensus estimate on MOL’s 4Q06 result yesterday. Average of 12 net profit estimates comes at HUF 45.7bn, 12.5% above our forecast of HUF 40.6bn. EBIT consensus of HUF 54.8bn, however, comes only 5.0% above our estimate of HUF 52.1bn.
Our view: There are unjustifiable high estimates among the 12 Reuters collected, which pulls up the consensus. Median of the net profit forecasts is HUF 40.7bn, which is much closer to our estimate. We reiterate our view, that actual figures of MOL would deliver slight negative surprise to the market when compared to headline consensus figures.