The Czech crown was under moderate pressure and came back above 24.54 EUR/CZK (200-day moving average) yesterday. We continue to be somewhat bearish as the negative interest rate differential should continue to weigh on the koruna. Nevertheless the rebound in EUR/USD could play in favour of the whole CEE region. In that case, a negative interest rate differential would probably cause only certain underperformance relative to neighboring Polish zloty, where we expect the interest rate to rise further next week. The domestic calendar is empty for the rest of the week and the Czech currency should follow EUR/USD in light of global figures (ISM, ADP today).
Czech bond yields moved sideways despite lower-than-expected inflation in EMU and poor US eco figures. It seems that room for further decline in yields is limited. Today, the key event will be a release of the issuance calendar for government bonds for the third quarter. We expect that the total amount should stand at around CZK 35bn.
The Polish zloty posted solid gains on Tuesday and managed to get back below the 200 days moving average at 3.955 EUR/PLN.
At least two pieces of news bolstered the Polish currency. First, GDP growth for Q1/2011 confirmed that the Polish economy remains in good shape as it grew by 4.4% on a year-on-year (y/y) basis. Moreover, gross fixed capital formation grew by 6% y/y, i.e. at the fastest pace since Q4/2008. Apart from the GDP figures, the NBP said that inflation expectations of Polish households had risen to 4.3% in May. Let us remind that the significant increase in inflation expectations in March was the main argument of MPC to increase interest rates back in April.
We believe that yesterday’s figures supported our scenario that bets on a rate hike are taking place as early as at June’s meeting (06/08). Regarding market’s expectations, a spread between FRA 1x4 and WIBOR currently stands at 16 basis points.