Zentiva - Squeeze-out on the horizont - analysis

Sanofi Aventis recently initiated the squeeze-out of Zentiva NV shares after boosting its stake in the company to 97.72% via a public bid and recent share purchases on the market. The minimum price for the squeeze-out is expected to be CZK 1,150 per share, which offers a negative arbitrage yield of 0.3%. We maintain our Sell recommendation on Zentiva and believe a sale of shares on the market offers the best exit opportunity from the stock (if share price is not less than CZK 1,150 per share), as investors this way may receive their money earlier. Our new cross-rate scenario puts Zentiva’s margin under pressure, resulting in a 44.3% drop in our net profit forecast to CZK 1.15bn (-30.7% y/y) for 2009 and 27.5% to CZK 1.84bn (+59.7% y/y) for 2010. Factoring-in a lower yield curve for the Czech Republic, we have decreased our DCF-based fair value estimate by 6.7% to CZK 931 per share...

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