CEZ: 2006 net income guidance of CZK 28.5bn reiterated albeit warmer-than-expected weather

CEZ’s Supervisory Board member Tomas Huener said CEZ may fail to meet its earnings targets without any precise specification because of warm weather, Bloomberg informed. In addition CEZ’s spokesman reiterated previous guidance for 2006 with net income of CZK 28.5bn. He admitted that warmer weather reduced power demand by 3% in December, while previous two months were in line with expectations. Huener also commented on sale of approx. 7% state stake in CEZ via stock exchange to make the process transparent, while CEZ is expected to take part and acquire this stake. Sale can be conducted in tranches in order to limit volatility of the market.

Our view:
Overall the demand in 4Q06 could have been 1% below the expectations, which is approximatelly less than CZK 390m on the top line and CZK 73m on the bottom line. This would lead to 2006F EPS of CZK 48.21 by CZK 0.12. Nonetheless we still see the CZK 28.5bn net income target as possible, given that company CFO previously said some CZK 200-300m reserves were not included in the 2006 guidance. CEZ decision to acquire state stake in CEZ requires EGM, that can’t be held earlier than in March.