Consumer prices - holiday break at the end of summer

The consumer price index decreased by 0.3 per cent in September. Y/y inflation accelerated from the 2.4 per cent in August to 2.8 per cent. The end of the summer tourist season which decreased the prices of holidays had the most distinctive effect on price development. Higher regulated rents and coal prices had the opposite impact on inflation.

The increase in inflation was far from unexpected. It is important that the indicator is still lagging slightly behind the CNB estimate, even considering that the higher tobacco tax and increased regulated prices have had an effect on price development this year. With respect to the strengthening CZK exchange rate in the preceding weeks there is a low probability of a change of interest rates before the end of the year.