Actual (Aug): 8.5 %
Consensus: 8.5 %
Previous (Jul): 8.4 %
Unemployment rate went slightly up in August, in line with expectations. There is a negative seasonal effect in the summer months, adding school graduates to the number of unemployed.
Compared with 1H, we can see a slower increase in the s.a. unemployment and a slower fall in the number of vacancies in August, which is quite positive news.
However, it will take more time before the situation on the labor market starts improving. We expect the unemployment rate to reach 9.3 pct by the end of the year and to peak in 1Q 2010.