Actual (September): CZK 17.8bn
Consensus: CZK 15.0bn
Previous (August): CZK 10.6bn
Exports decreased by 13.9%, imports fell by 18.0% y/y. The record- high surplus stems from improving terms of trade and deep recession in the domestic demand. Especially, investment activity is in deep mire. While a contribution of foreign trade to the GDP is likely to improve, fixed capital investment is going to burden GDP figures more than before.
Rising trade surplus helps CZK to appreciate. The CNB’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged and return of risk appetite on financial markets support the currency as well.