Actual (Sep): CZK 12.4bn
Consensus: CZK 8.7bn
Previous (Aug): CZK 0.5bn
Trade balance posted a solid surplus in September. Both export and imports keeps quickly growing. However, 12M balance declined to CZK 132bn from CZK 137bn a month earlier.
Exports gain from strong recovery in Germany and Slovakia, two most important trading partners of the Czech Republic. Actually, both countries belong to the performing EU economies nowadays.
Imports reflect rising commodity prices as the Czech Republic does not possess its own resources of oil, gas and metals and relies on imports of these goods. For example, nominal value of oil import increased by 30% yoy, while real volume grew only by 13% yoy. Changes in terms of trade in last 12M negatively affected trade balance in September by CZK 7.7bn.
Trade balance figures in 3Q suggest that contribution of net exports to qoq GDP change should be close to zero. In 2010, trade balance is likely to reach a surplus of CZK 130bn compared to CZK 150bn in 2009.