Actual (Apr): 8.6 %
Consensus: 8.7 %
Previous (Mar): 9.2 %
The April fall in unemployment rate is even deeper than expected. During spring, seasonal effects turn from very negative to favorable, which usually results in a signficant decrease in unemployment. This year, the figure has already dropped by more than one percentage point. As activity in construction and agriculture starts, hiring increases. At the same time, layoffs remain at the same level as in the previous months. Good news is that the improvement in employment is not only driven by the seasonal changes in construction and other sectors. We can also see a continuing rise in employment in industry. Moreover, number of vacancies is still growing and suggests that there is still room for decrease in unemployment.
After very negative beginning of the year, unemployment rate has got to levels corresponding with the current phase of economic recovery. At the end of 2011 we expect the rate to be around 8.5 pct, but it may get even to 8 pct during the year thanks to favorable seasonality.