Actual (March): 56.8
Previous (February): 54.3
Actual (March): 52.5
Previous (February): 52.4
Actual (March): 54.5
Previous (February): 56.0
Actual survey in the Czech manufacturing sector lends support for even more optimism than before. PMI rose to its two-year high. Czech index closely follows the same indicator in the Euro zone (56.6 points in March), German PMI increased to a sky-high 60.2 points.
Rising PMI indices are usually explained as a sign of improving economic conditions and provide, thus, an indication for short-term forecasts of the industrial output or foreign trade. However, mixed set of real economy indicators, several negative surprises (stagnation of German GDP in 4Q09), fading impact of fiscal stimuli do not correspond with PMI at levels usually reached on top of the business cycle. Either economy is set to brutally accelerate or PMI overshot its optimism.
On the other hand, Poland and Hungary remain also optimistic but much more cautious. Polish PMI increased marginally and hovers above the 50-point threshold. PMI in Hungary actually dropped a little bit.