Actual (June): 0.0% m/m; 1.2% y/y
Consensus: 0.1% m/m; 1.2% y/y
Previous (May): 0.0% m/m; 1.3% y/y
Consumer prices did not change in June. The price level remains at the same level since April. While oil price drove gasoline prices higher, decreasing food prices offset their impact. Changes in prices of other goods and services were negligible.
Annual inflation is expected to touch zero level in months to come and outlook for both headline inflation and monetary-policy (core) inflation looks to be benign for next 12-18 months (horizon of monetary policy). Thus, we guess that the trough in the current easing cycle can be 25 bps lower than current CNB’s rate.