Actual (1Q/09): +0.3% q/q; -4.9% y/y
Consensus: -0.4% q/q; -4.5% y/y
Previous (1Q/09): -3.4% q/q; -3.4% y/y
Preliminary GDP figure for 2Q came surprisingly good. GDP increased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. The Czech Republic, thus, printed the same figure as Germany and France. We have no details, but we can assume that increasing government expenditures and lower imports helped to offset declining exports and investment activity.
The Czech economy survived the mire after the financial crisis better than its regional peers. In 2Q, GDP fell by 7.4% y/y in Hungary and 5.3% y/y in Slovakia. In Poland, figures are yet to be released.
Latest data confirm an improving picture of the Czech economy, thus, the need for further rate cuts or fiscal expansion declines.
In 2009, GDP is forecasted to decrease by 3.6%.