Actual (Apr): 8.4%
Consensus: 8.5%
Previous (Mar): 8.9%
April brought another decrease of the unemployment rate that was slightly more significant than expected. The number of unemployed dropped below 500 k. Once again, positive seasonality stands behind a great part of the improvement. We estimate that the s.a. unemployment decreased marginally. Hiring increased and the number of vacancies also continues to grow, which is promising for the next few months. However, we see this mostly connected to the seasonal work.
The last industrial and construction output data has shown that the economic activity is worsening. Currently, the economy is stagnating and, thus, cannot create many new jobs. The number of vacancies is the highest in nearly three years but we do not consider its growth sustainable. Thus, we stick to our expectation that in 2012 the unempoyment rate will stay around 8.5 pct, on average.