Actual (July): 0.0% mom; 2.3% yoy
Consensus: 0.2% mom; 2.5% yoy
Previous (June): 0.5% mom; 2.0% yoy
Producer prices stagnated in July as lower prices of chemical products and cheaper cars offset rising metal prices. Czech PPI is mainly driven by world commodity prices. Recovery of the global economy seems to be uncertain and commodity prices did not follow the same pattern last months. Thus, we can see oil prices to turn lower while basic metals still headed higher.
Inflation in producer prices is likely to increase further in following months and it can surpass 3%. However, core PPI (ex food & energy) remains low and does not indicate insufficient capacities and price pressures. Monetary policy can stay relaxed for next 3-4 quarters.